⛳City Park Golf Club

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Formula: (Index × Slope / 113) + (Rating - Par)

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⛳

Course Conditions & CPO Formulas

Course Conditions & CPO Prediction

The live weather widget models active turf moisture hour-by-hour using rain, drainage, and evaporation to predict Cart Path Only (CPO) probability — calibrated against real CPO calls at CPGC New Orleans.

Active Ground Water	CPO %	Course Condition	Cart Status
0.00" (7 dry days)	0% 🟢	Firm, dry fairways (0% CPO call chance)	Full 100% Scatter
0.01" – 0.14"	1% – 30% 🟢	Normal to damp fairways from recent rains	Normal Cart Rules
0.15" – 0.20" / Rain	31% – 55% 🟡	Soft turf, rain/storm risk	Borderline / 90° Rule
0.21" – 0.27"	56% – 90% 🔴	Heavy wet patches, tire rut risk	Cart Path Only
0.285"+	100% 🔴

Manual Score for Player

Add a past score for a player. This is useful for importing historical rounds or scores from other courses.

⛳ What CPO % Represents:

CPO % is the probability that the clubhouse manager makes the official call for Cart Path Only. If there has been no rain for the last 7 days, the probability is 0% (firm, fast fairways with 100% full scatter).

📐 The 3 Forecast Card Formulas:

1. Today's Card (Live Current Time, e.g. Today: 7p)

Calculates live fairway moisture at the current hour from the last 7 days of rainfall minus drainage & daytime solar evaporation. Any active Admin Weather Override applies directly here.

2. Tomorrow's Card (Morning Tee Time: Sun: 6a)

Targets morning tee-time conditions at 6:00 AM. Only rainfall that falls before 6:00 AM impacts this rating. When overnight is dry, moisture settles slightly (-2%). Afternoon storms are previewed on the card so golfers can plan ahead, but don't inflate the 6:00 AM rating before they arrive.

3. Day After Tomorrow Card (Morning Tee Time: Mon: 6a)

Targets morning tee-time conditions at 6:00 AM, carrying forward dampness from tomorrow afternoon's rain. In New Orleans high humidity and dark overnight conditions, afternoon storm water cannot fully drain overnight, so Monday morning reads noticeably wetter than Sunday morning.

⏳ Hourly Soil Water Balance Model:

ECMWF Weather Model: European IFS 9km high-resolution model for local convective rain, showers, and thunderstorms. Past 4 days + 3-day forecast, updated hourly.
Runoff Cap (0.90"): Downpours exceeding field capacity drain immediately into City Park lagoons and drainage canals.
Hourly Drainage (24/7) — 0.010"/hr: Continuous deep gravity drainage and pump station outflow.
Daytime Evapotranspiration (7 AM – 7 PM) — 0.012"/hr base: Solar drying scaled by cloud cover: 1.4× clear sunny, 1.2× partly cloudy, 0.85× overcast, 0.50× rain/fog.
NOLA Clay Retained Baseline — 0.14": Below-sea-level fairways retain moisture for 2–3 days following rain events (~30% CPO baseline), but completely drain to 0% after 7 consecutive dry days.
Admin Manual Override: Admins can log in and enter "No rain for last XX hours" to zero out false API rain events. Persists in the database and local storage.

🎯 Calibration History:

Sep 12, 2026 — 3-card formula calibration & 7-day dry rule: Calibrated CPO as clubhouse call probability (0% after 7 dry days, ~30% for damp clay fairways 2 days after rain, 100% at saturation). Implemented distinct 6:00 AM morning tee-time simulation with previous-afternoon storm carryover.
Sep 9, 2026 — Initial wet-season clay floor: Club called CPO at 9 AM Wednesday with 0.0" rain that morning from prior week rain carryover; established 0.14" NOLA clay retained moisture floor.